Watches Watch Apple , already caused a lot of hype on the Internet, now captured the minds of people who are not directly affiliated with any watch industry, nor with high-tech products.According to Lenta , concern arose among market analysts precious metals due to the fact that much of the range of hours will be released in a gold case. According to some estimates, it will require twice as much gold than central banks are buying all of the world put together. If estimates are correct, the global market of precious metals can seriously shake.
Rumors of a gold watch Apple leaked to the press and blogs last month. It was assumed that the production of Apple Watch will be divided into three segments: the most affordable Apple Watch Sport (cost - $ 349), Apple Watch and Apple Watch Edition c body of gold. All in the first quarter to be released six million hours, of which budgetary Sport will have three million, while on the road Edition - million.
According to the evaluation The Wall Street Journal, in the next quarter, total production of gold watches Apple should make a million copies a month. Model will cost between 10 and 000 dollars, and some options - up to 17 000 dollars. Thus, the premium watch Apple expects to compete for the niche of the most prestigious Swiss brands.
To watch production will use 18-karat gold (Russian scale - gold 750-carat), containing 75% of the precious metal itself. What is its share of the total hours is still unknown. Journalist Josh Senters suggests that each instance hours will require not less than two ounces (more than 60 grams) of gold. Multiplying the number of hours, which presumably can be produced per year (12 million units), specialists portal mining.com estimated the total demand for gold in the Apple 750 tons per year, which is one third of the annual production of the precious metal in the world.
For comparison, all the central banks of the world put together last year increased its gold reserves to 477 tons. This, by the way, the second over the last 50 years - 17 percent more than in 2013. But even these figures are not comparable with the amount of the alleged procurement of Apple.
A one-time increase in demand for one-third of the market can cause panic. Gold producers certainly will not suddenly increase production. Rather difficult to imagine it in respect of any raw material, the more precious metal. Despite the fact that in the last 15 years, gold prices rose by almost four times, and in gold mining began to invest more, the volume of supply on the market is not radically changed.
If Apple really will buy gold in such quantities, its price may rise in two and three times. By the way, for themselves hours is probably a disaster will not appear. Actually gold is their value does not exceed a quarter (about 2300-2400 dollars) if the settlement WSJ and Sentersa are correct. Most of the price will be the brand. But for manufacturers who use gold in a purely industrial purposes, such an increase in prices can be overwhelming. And many of the Central Bank, including Russia, which in recent years has been particularly active buying gold may have to review their plans.
However, in contrast to analysts and experts technology industry world gold market reacted to the news of the gold watch Apple without the slightest enthusiasm. Over the last month the price has not increased, but on the contrary - lost nearly $ 100 per ounce, down to the middle of March to the multi-year low in 1150 dollars. The idea is that this kind of hype should at least raise eyebrows traders in the precious metals market. Nevertheless, this did not happen. How Come?
Obviously, market participants do not trust the extrapolations made by experts in other fields.The arguments of skeptics in sufficient detail the portal Seekingalpha expert in precious metals Ben Cramer-Miller. Firstly, he said, it is unlikely true statement that in the production of each instance Edition will use two ounces of gold. According to him, such a mass amount to about 70% by weight of hours, which is unlikely.
Secondly, according to the patents Apple, the company plans to use in the manufacture of watches gold alloy with ceramic particles of low density - more robust and less prone to scratches. With the proportion of the precious metal in the mass will remain, but in terms of gold will take up less space. And, therefore, the evaluation of 60 grams per instance is greatly exaggerated.
Kramer-Miller also said not too realistic to Apple scale release. Watch worth 10,000 dollars - a luxury item. Even counting on growing demand in China, where gold is love, it is difficult to monthly sales volume of one million units. For comparison: the brand Rolex, the world leader in premium-class hours, sells only 750,000 units per year. Rolex is the total revenue of $ 4.5 billion. If Apple will be able to sell their watches in the planned volumes, revenue from one product will be only $ 120 billion. This corporation is certainly capable of many things, but also features Apple has a limit.
In all likelihood, the rumors about the explosion of the gold market are distributed to attract more attention to the new product. Luxury consumers - people tend to be conservative. So, Apple, which sets and advanced to the young middle-class enters uncharted territory for themselves. In order to win the market needs more work, including on the part of PR.
All this, however, does not mean that the "golden apple" will not have any impact at all on the world market of precious metals. Purchases will be significant, and, even if they are 20-25 times lower than claimed (as said the same Kramer-Miller), it will be a substantial amount. Few companies can buy 25-30 tons of gold a year. Surely the market will react to the news release of Apple, and the price of gold could rise. Panic but apparently will not.